I wish that image was one of those, “Hurricane forecasters in Florida,” memes…but it’s not. That is a screenshot of the latest Hurricane Matthew models as of 10:30am Thursday, 10/6/2016.
The thing is, this has been trending for DAYS and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) uses the most conservative estimates for track forecasts. But I follow a LOT of mets (meteorologists) on several tropical sites and Twitter, and they’ve been talking about this possibility for DAYS.
So you can’t stop paying attention to it after it goes past this time. Also, keep in mind, those are only like 5-day tracks. Interests along the Gulf of Mexico might need to be paying attention to this monster if it gets out there and then it manages to go north from that point.
This is a killer storm. So here’s the thing–the northern section of the eastern coast of Florida hasn’t seen a storm of this size and strength in a long time. So there will be people who say, “Aww, this isn’t bad, they’re exaggerating.”
There were plenty of people in the Panhandle who thought that during Ivan, too.
Get your plans complete, and get the fuck out. If it turns out you didn’t need to later, hey, at least you had practice. Yes, it’s a massive PITA, but so is DYING.
Here is a list of the primary sources I follow to get the latest tropical weather information:
National Hurricane Center (due to the storm’s proximity they’re issuing updates at 2am, 5am, 8am, 11am, 2pm, 5pm, 8pm, and 11pm (eastern time). On the graphic, you can click the “show track” option to see the line. (But ignore the line, look at the CONE.)
FLHurricane.com (aka Central Florida Hurricane Center) They have links to model runs, radar, and live weather cams in impacted areas.
Sirius XM is broadcasting on channel 184 starting noon Thursday (10/6) the Weather Channel feed.
[EDIT: My son and I had to drive today and mine’s an older XM radio and the simulcast was on channel 1.]
My Twitter list of weather tweeters: https://twitter.com/TymberDalton/lists/weather-tweeters
SWFMD Hurricane Page: http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xweb%20weather/hurricane%20model%20plots
PLEASE take this storm seriously! It might be a Cat 4 or Cat 5 when it makes landfall in Florida, and a deviation of only 20 miles or so to the west can mean even more devastation to Florida.
Stay safe, and good luck!